Intensive PP turnarounds give some respite to the market

Recently, with the successive shutdowns of PP plants, the average operating rate has fallen below 80%. This marks the first time since 2025 that the PP operating rate has dropped below 80%.

This phenomenon can be seen as the beginning of the spring turnaround season for PP plants. In the coming months, more plants are all scheduled to shut for maintenance. This means that the PP operating rate will further decline, which will help alleviate market supply pressure.

From the perspective of production ratio, the proportion ratio of homo PP raffia has also decreased significantly recently, now falling below 20%. Historically, such a low proportion is quite rare. Changes in production ratio can be somewhat random. In terms of market impact, there is a certain time lag from production to circulation, and the market also has some existing inventory. Therefore, the short-term impact is expected to be limited. However, if the proportion ratio of homo PP raffia remains low for an extended period, the market will gradually experience tighter supply. Future changes in production ratio should be closely monitored.

The recent downturn in the PP market is primarily attributed to insufficient downstream demand. Taking BOPP as an example, downstream orders have continued to decline after the Chinese New Year holiday. Since March, order volumes have not increased but instead decreased. Although the peak season in Mar is more than halfway through, demand does not seem optimistic.

In summary, the short-term intensive maintenance of PP plants has reduced supply, providing some relief to the market. However, whether this can drive a market recovery still depends on downstream demand. Currently, there are no clear signs of improvement in demand, and the PP market is expected to remain volatile. Moving forward, attention should be paid to plant maintenance schedules and actual downstream demand conditions.