What is the price trend of cotton linter with new arrivals soon?

Since the end of Aug and the beginning of Sep, hand-picked seed cotton has been harvested in China. A few ginners mainly process cotton for wadding, with small purchase volume. At present, new cottonseed and cotton linter is about to arrive at the market, and prices are mainly stable amid heavier wait-and-see sentiment.

Since late Aug to early Sep, a small amount of seed cotton has arrived in Hubei, Shandong and Hebei, and the purchase price of seed cotton ranges from 3.20yuan/kg to 3.40yuan/kg. Because the price is much lower than the same period last year, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, and the overall purchase volume is not large. During the same period, a small amount of hand-picked seed cotton in Xinjiang also arrived, with the procurement price of about 6.8-7.2yuan/kg. Machine-picked seed cotton has not yet been traded, and the expected purchase price is within 5.5-6.0yuan/kg.

Due to the huge losses in 2021/22 and 2023/24 crop years, the ginners are cautious in purchasing this year, and the rush to harvest has obviously cooled down. Due to the small amount of seed cotton on the market, the new cottonseed is still arriving sporadically or in pre-sale period. The current price of cottonseed in Xinjiang is about 2,100 yuan/mt, which is 1,300yuan/mt lower than 3,400yuan/mt in the same period last year, a drop of 38.2%.

At present, the amount of hand-picked seed cotton on the market is not large. It is expected that machine-picked seed cotton will gradually arrive at the market in late Sep and early Oct. Due to the small number of ginners that have started purchasing, the amount of seed cotton on the market is not large, and the quantity of new cottonseed on the market is limited. The cottonseed and cotton lint market is mainly stable recently, with small fluctuations in some areas. New cotton linter is expected to arrive after the end of Sep, and the volume will gradually increase after the National Day. Many cottonseed oil and delinting mills plan to start work around the National Day holiday.

In summary, hand-picked seed cotton gradually arrived since late Aug and early Sep, but the purchase volume is still small, mainly for processing cotton for wadding. The enthusiasm for harvesting seed cotton has waned this year. At present, most ginners are in a wait-and-see attitude, and the purchase price of seed cotton is expected to be significantly lower than last year. During the transition period and old and new resources at present, the prices of cottonseed and cotton linter are temporarily stable. The rise and fall of prices needs to observe the fluctuations of the macro level, especially the progress of seed cotton arrival and the speed of processing.