An overview on polyester products exports in Q1

Export demand was one of the highlights of last year's polyester growth. If the data of the beginning of the year was disturbed by Chinese New Year, the data of March may help us better understand the market.

Exports increase both year-on-year and month-on-month in March

First of all, for the polyester category, the export volume increased by 279,000 tons month-on-month and 111,000 tons year-on-year in March, which means after a decline in February, 

it grew again.

For the various types of polyester products,, exports of all categories increased month-on-month in March, indicating the fading of seasonal factors related to the Chinese New Year.. Comparing to the last year, only polyester filament declined 28,000 tons, and other categories grew in different extent.

Changes in exports of polyester products in March 2024(KT)

Fiber segment under pressure as growth slips in Q1

In Q1, polyester products increased by 93,000 tons year-on-year, far less than the same period last year. (In Q1 of 2023, polyester product exports were 2.813 million tons, increasing 530,000 tons year-on-year.)

Among the products, filament yarn and staple fiber exports declined year-on-year, while non-fiber exports grew. Apart from seasonal factors, fiber exports were indeed facing some pressure.

Changes in exports of polyester products between 2023 and 2024 Q1 (KT)

With the influence of India's BIS regulation, and exports to India plummeted; on the other hand, the main importers, such as India, Turkey, had new capacity into production, which leads to a reduction in imports from China.

Compared to the fiber sector, the non-fiber sector saw significant growth, which was close to the same period last year. PET bottle chips have seen a surge in overseas procurement since the end of last year, with recent data showing promising performance. The sustainability should be taken into concern (PET bottle chip exports in Q1 of last year also grew significantly, but began to decline since Q2). With the PET bottle chips capacity expanding, if the overseas demand can increase accordingly, it may help alleviate pressure to some extent.

Polyester products exports may still be in a growth trend in long term

From the annual data, there were two rounds of explosive growth in 2021 and 2023, resulting in the relatively weak export data in 2022 and 2024 due to high base effect. However, from a long term perspective, compared with other years, polyester products are still in a growth trend.

Overall, from the Q1 data, the decline of fiber exports seems to be a pullback after a surge. Last year's positive factors such as BIS certification, overseas supply and demand gaps, have temporarily subsided in short term, which put pressure on fiber exports. In the long term, there may still be room for growth. For the non-fiber products, the Q1 growth trend is relatively good, and the sustainability of demand growth should be monitored.