Polyester POY may be regionally tight in 2025 amid queued texturing machines

Recently, learned from several domestic twisting machine suppliers that the current orders for twisting machines are in a backlog status. Some suppliers have orders scheduled as far out as March 2025, and some even have orders extending to mid-2025. Based on the current trend in twisting machine orders, the increase in twisting machines used for polyester in 2025 is expected to reach 1,600 units, with a growth rate close to 6%, remaining at a peak level compared to recent years. If calculate based on a production of 4 tons per day per twisting machine and an average operational period of 10 months, this would require a consumption of 1.92 million tons of POY.

In 2025, new PFY capacity is estimated to be 1.97 million tons/year. In terms of product structure, the new capacity for direct-spun POY is 1.11 million tons, which includes some differentiated products, while conventional POY accounts for about 1 million tons. Geographically, 0.9 million tons will be distributed in provinces outside Jiangsu and Zhejiang, 0.25 million tons/year in northern Jiangsu, and only 0.82 million tons in southern Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with this 820kt primarily consisting of differentiated products and FDY.

Therefore, based solely on the comparison of newly added capacities in the upstream and downstream sectors, the supply and demand for POY in 2025 may be relatively tight. This is particularly true for some POY companies in southern Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which may face temporary shortages of supply. However, the actual supply and demand situation for POY will also depend on the operating rate of filament yarn plants, especially during the Chinese New Year period, as well as the downstream demand in 2025.