Vessel Tilt at Assaluyeh Halts Loading, Narrowing China's MEG Import

Market chatter intensified regarding a vessel listing incident at Iran's Assaluyeh port on Friday afternoon. The affected ship, carrying around 18,000 tons of MEG and DEG, tilted during loading, blocking the passage. In response, the port has halted all liquid chemical loading operations.

All operations in port of Assaluyeh, including MEG, DEG, Ma, have been canceled due to the possibility of the Fulda ship capsizing. The ship is listed to one side and is close to tipping over.

In late December, three vessels (including the Fulda) were scheduled to load MEG at Assaluyeh, totaling just over 65,000 tons, with expected arrivals in China in late January. Adding in the two Iranian shipments slated to arrive in early January, total Iranian arrivals in January would have exceeded 120,000 tons. More than half of this volume was destined for Zhangjiagang, ensuring ample spot liquidity. However, due to the current incident, the market must watch how quickly the port can resume normal operations. If loading cannot be completed by early January, the planned concentrated arrivals will be disrupted.

Looking at other supply sources, U.S. volumes for January are around 100,000 tons. Another large cargo of 30,000–40,000 tons originally planned for late January arrival is still not loaded and may be delayed until mid-February. Canadian supply is expected at roughly 70,000–80,000 tons, including some tank-clearance cargoes heading to China.

From Saudi Arabia, arrivals in January are anticipated to increase by over 50,000 tons due to some vessels loading in December ahead of planned terminal maintenance in January.

Regional (nearby) supply may slightly tighten in January, notably from Taiwan, as recent MEG price retracements have softened suppliers' willingness to ship. There is also ongoing attention on Malaysian MEG plant stability. Meanwhile, a 6,000-ton South Korean cargo sold by tender this week remains on the radar.

Overall, December MEG imports are estimated around 550,000 tons, with January arrivals projected at 610,000–620,000 tons. This represents a smaller increase than earlier market forecasts.