Nov PET bottle chip export delivery exceeds 3-year high

According to the Customs, China PET chip export volume totals 424kt in Nov 2021, y-o-y growing 71.9%, including 67kt for HS code 39076910, y-o-y up 49%, and 357kt for HS code 39076110, y-o-y rising 76.9%. PET chip exports totaled 3.406 million tons in Jan-Nov, YOY growing 39%, including 630kt for HS code 39076910, y-o-y up 88.6%, and 2.776 million tons for HS code 39076110, y-o-y rising 31.2%. Calculating from HS code and delivery of each factory, PET bottle chip export volume amounted to 3.08 million tons in Jan-Nov 2021, year on year rising 36.4%, while up 4% from 2019 level.

In Nov 2021, according to CCFGroup statistics, China PET bottle chip export order intake reached 300kt, YOY growing 26%. In Dec, according to CCFGroup sampling survey in the first half of the month, order intake of some bottle chip factories has exceeded that of Nov total, so it is expected that the export sales may keep around 300kt, and shipping volume is expected at more than 350kt.

Looking at 2021 delivery condition, the shipping volume in single month won’t show the actual export condition, generally players need to refer to the figure in 2-3 months. Since export order intake both surpassed 400kt in Sep and Oct, besides, customs published data was less than actual to-be-delivered volume. That means Q1 2022 delivery volume may possess slightly more than 40% of the total output.

PET bottle chip total stock is assessed at 1.2-1.25 million tons by end Dec, down 550-600kt from end Dec 2021. Editing out exports, domestic contract sales, and large end-user plants purchases, the volume left to small-medium plants and traders is not much. In Q1, PET monthly supply is assessed at 200-300kt, which means PET bottle chip stock is around this level. So far, additional charges like loading and unloading charges in some domestic ports are increasing, and the cost of picking up goods from third-party warehouses may also increase in the future. When factory stock is tight, producers may choose to sacrifice the interests of some customers who do not implement contract in time.