China PET bottle chip export delivery hits historical high

According to customs data, the total export volume of PET bottle chip and PET fiber chip in November 2024 reached 642,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. Among these, tariff code 39076910 accounted for 88,000 tons, a year-on-year decline of 15.3%, while tariff code 39076110 accounted for 554,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. Based on the estimates from both tariff codes, the total export volume of PET bottle chip in November 2024 was around 600,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%, setting a new historical monthly shipping record since November 2023.

Note: The above figure combines the export volume of tariff codes 39076110 and 39076910 as well as factory-calibrated numbers. The individual tariff code 39076110 does not solely represent the actual export volume of PET bottle chip.

From January to November 2024, the total export volume of domestic PET bottle chip and PET fiber chip reached 6.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.7% or 1.31 million tons. Among these, tariff code 39076910 accounted for 994,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, while tariff code 39076110 accounted for 5.23 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26%. According to CCFGroup comprehensive estimates from two tariff codes and factory shipment statistics, the total export volume of PET bottle chip in the first 11 months is around 5.67 million tons (estimated figure), representing a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, and this value has already far exceeded the total export shipment volume for the entire previous year.

Looking at the domestic PET bottle chip export order intake in November, the total volume reached around 450,000 tons, slightly increasing by 10,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In fact, due to the impressive sales volume in September, the expected export shipment volume from October to December is likely to be higher than the sales volume. This year, due to intensive capacity expansion, domestic PET bottle chip companies are facing increased sales pressure. Given that export profit is generally better than domestic sales most of the time, the average export proportion for PET bottle chip companies has now exceeded 41%. This is partly attributed to the advantage of lower domestic raw material prices, with many deals settled at around low price levels within the year. Meanwhile, overseas major manufacturers have restocking demand ahead of the Christmas and Spring Festival holidays, with many orders scheduled for delivery before and after the holidays. Additionally, the continuous depreciation of the RMB against the USD has prompted many PET bottle chip companies to rush for exports before the end of the year.

Looking ahead, considering that the average monthly order intake for domestic PET bottle chip factories has been around 530,000 tons since September, and excluding some Q1 shipment orders, the export shipping volume in December is expected to be around 500,000 tons, with a high probability of approaching 6.2 million tons for the entire year. Based on the current order intake situation for December, the average monthly export shipping volume in the first quarter of 2025 is still expected to exceed 450,000 tons, but considering the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, surpassing the 500,000 tons threshold on a monthly basis may be somewhat challenging. The key factor will still depend on the final shipping schedule, and market participants should continue to monitor the situation.