China ACN: game-playing behind the steady market

Since Sep, ACN market has been range-bound overall. On the one hand, the product delivery is delayed in early Sep affected by the ship arrangement, and in Nantong, the ship problem has not been solved. On the other hand, downstream acrylic fiber plants sell ACN under the high costs, and among the stagnant market situation, market players’mindset softens somewhat.

Currently, it is heard that some ACN would be arrived at Nantong at the weekend, and current operating rate keeps above 95%. Supply issue will ease gradually. In addition, acrylic fiber plants have maintenance plans. Jilin Chemical Fiber's three units will be shut gradually, and Sinopec Shanghai's North unit plans to shut in end Sep. ACN supply is supposed to increase, while demand may reduce.

In the meantime, Jiangsu Sailboat’s 260kta ACN unit plans to be closed in Oct, for more than 25 days of maintenance, and downstream producers will purchase feedstock in advance. Jiangsu KoRuhr II’s 130kta new unit is expected to start up in Oct, and plans to produce in early Oct, then the supply may increase. Besides, there are still export opportunities.

Except the special situation in 2020 under pandemic situation, ACN market has experienced obvious fall in Oct from 2017 to 2019. On the one hand, it is attributed to the operating rate cut of acrylic fiber plants. On the other hand, it is due to a shorter selling time affected by the long National Day holiday, and sellers are active to provide discounts to sell. In 2021, prices are also likely to decline, but there are uncertainties with the new capacities of ABS and NBRL, and the possible maintenance of Shanghai Secco in Nov.