Trade correlation of the spandex industrial chain between China and U.S.

On April 3, Beijing time, Trump announced reciprocal tariff measures: 1. A baseline tariff of 10% imposed globally. 2. Additional tariffs on the 60 countries with the highest trade deficits with the U.S., with an additional tariff of 34% imposed on China. On April 8, the U.S. President signed an executive order to impose an extra 50% tariff on China, making the total "reciprocal tariff" reach 84%.

This reciprocal tariff policy has triggered significant fluctuations in global commodities and financial markets. For products related to spandex, the direct trade volume between China and the U.S. is relatively small, but the indirect impacts, particularly involving end products and markets in Southeast Asia, may be larger.

According to the export-import data for the spandex industry chain in 2024, the proportion of exports to the U.S. was very low, accounting for only 0%-2% of total exports. Therefore, the high tariff rates of the reciprocal tariffs will have a negligible direct impact on the exports of related products in the spandex industry chain. More attention should be paid to the impact on mid-to-downstream products, specifically the textile and apparel products involved, as well as on the demand for products that are directly and indirectly exported to the U.S. market after processing in Southeast Asia and other regions.

According to the export flow of textiles and apparel in 2024, nearly 17% was exported to the U.S. market, with some of these being elastic products containing spandex.

In terms of the share of raw materials–spandex fibers and related products–textiles and apparels directly exported to the U.S., the impact was limited.

However, this reciprocal tariff policy has also led to additional tariffs being imposed on major countries and regions exporting textiles and apparel, including Southeast Asia, Europe, Japan and South Korea. This will affect export orders for products from more than half of the countries involved in textile and apparel exports.

According to the tariff policies imposed on certain countries and regions following the announcement on April 3, and based on the proportion of textile and apparel imports from the U.S., ASEAN countries accounted for 16.7%. Since ASEAN is also a major export market for Chinese textiles and apparel, the high tariffs in ASEAN will impact purchasing orders for Chinese textiles, among others.

If the 84% additional tariffs are calculated cumulatively, the tariffs the U.S. imposes on imports from China are as follows:

The above summarizes the current data on the industry and trade with the U.S. for reference in evaluating the situation. The reciprocal tariff policy is still subject to change and remains in negotiation, making it difficult to assess the specific impact on the industry chain accurately. Given the current developments, it seems that the U.S.-China game may be a protracted process, and impacts on the market in the second quarter are inevitable.