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Fiber, textile and clothing industry chain export in Sep

2024-11-12 09:42:07 CCFGroup

This year's export trade data has consistently shown a trend of increasing volume but decreasing prices. While the total export value has remained relatively flat, the actual export volume growth has been significant. Considering that this round of export volume recovery began in August last year, the export growth for August and September this year are particularly important.

According to the latest data, there has been a turning point in the total export volume for chapters 50-63 in September, with a noticeable month-on-month decline, and year-on-year growth also began to face pressure.

The export volumes of many categories are still growing year-on-year, but most mainstream products have seen a month-on-month decrease.

Chapter	Product	y-o-y	m-o-m
Chapter 50	Silk	-18%	-7%
Chapter 51	Wool, fine or coarse animal hair; horsehair yarn and woven fabric	-3%	-8%
Chapter 52	Cotton	6%	-7%
Chapter 53	Other vegetable textile fibres; paper yarn and woven fabrics of paper yarn	15%	57%
Chapter 54	Man-made filaments; strip and the like of man-made textile materials	0%	-11%
Chapter 55	Man-made staple fibres	5%	-12%
Chapter 56	Wadding, felt and nonwovens; special yarns; twine, cordage, ropes and cables and articles thereof	15%	-8%
Chapter 57	Carpets and other textile floor coverings	19%	-4%
Chapter 58	Special woven fabrics; tufted textile fabrics; lace; tapestries; trimmings; embroidery	14%	-9%
Chapter 59	Impregnated, coated, covered or laminated textile fabrics; textile articles of a kind suitable for Industrial use	5%	-8%
Chapter 60	Knitted or crocheted fabrics	14%	-14%
Chapter 61	Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted	8%	-17%
Chapter 62	Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, not knitted or crocheted	8%	-16%
Chapter 63	Other made-up textile articles; sets; worn clothing and worn textile articles; rags	16%	-8%

The month-on-month decline in September was generally over 10%. If the slowdown in year-on-year growth can be attributed to the high base effect from the same period last year, then the across-the-board month-on-month decline is likely closely related to the recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.

Firstly, due to the base effect, this year's cumulative year-on-year export growth has shown a gradual decline. Fabric and other textiles had performed the strongest at one point, but their growth rate has been accelerating downward in the past two months. Nevertheless, fabric and other textiles still recorded a cumulative year-on-year growth of 13% from January to September, making them the segment with the highest growth rate.

Comparatively, the growth of fibers, yarns, and fabrics has been weaker overall this year, with polyester filament being a notable drag.

However, what deserves more attention now is the impact of exchange rate fluctuations. In the second half of the year, the external market has been volatile. The U.S. Federal Reserve initiated an interest rate cut path, which temporarily weakened the U.S. dollar index and reversed expectations for the RMB, leading to significant rebounds in both offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates. This shift has made foreign trade companies more cautious about exchange rate risks, which in turn made export order negotiations more challenging.

As central banks in the U.S., Japan, and Europe adjusted their monetary policy expectations in October, the U.S. dollar's trajectory was revised, causing renewed fluctuations in the exchange rate market. Additionally, political factors like the U.S. elections have added uncertainty, presenting more challenges to the foreign trade environment.

It remains uncertain how long this decline in exports will persist, but short-term market fluctuations seem inevitable, raising concerns about demand expectations.

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