Is overseas demand worth expecting for export of viscose products?

The export of viscose products generally declines in Oct. The export of conventional VSF is less than 20kt, a m-o-m decrease of 24%, and that of VFY is nearly 7kt, a decrease of 15% from Sep and 27% from the same period last year. The export of rayon single yarn even hits new lows of 15kt this year, a m-o-m decreased of 16.4%.

Turkey and Pakistan are the main destinations of China's VSF exports during Jan-Oct this year, with each accounting for nearly 1/4 of the total. Bangladesh ranks the third place, taking up 7%. According to the chart above, the trading volume of several major markets decreases significantly in Aug, while in October, exports to Bangladesh have not yet recovered, leading to a decline in data.

For VFY, India's share has increased year by year, and it has occupied half of the total this year. The export change in Oct is mainly due to the reduction of this market. Due to the impact of the epidemic, exports have fluctuated greatly in recent years, and there is different trend this year. However, the trading volume in the first three quarters has exceeded that of the whole year of 2021, so the decline in the fourth quarter can be acceptable. In addition, financial reasons are also reflected by market participants. India's foreign exchange reserves have been declining this year, which has fallen by $100 billion by Nov, and has just recovered recently. The delayed payment accordingly has also limited the trading volume.

The same influence also exists in the export of rayon single yarn. From Jan to Oct this year, India digested 45% of China's rayon single yarn. There has been a huge contrast between the brisk sales in the first half of the year and the downturn in the second half of the yea. From logistics to demand to capital, cross-border trade also needs to gather various conditions to proceed smoothly. Under the circumstances that demand of China local market is unlikely to recover significantly, orders from overseas markets are one of the few expectations of the market. Thinking optimistically, if capital affects trade, there is still hope for overseas demand.