China's ACN imports decline to a multi-year low in May, 2022

China's acrylonitrile import volumes have been constantly decreasing this year, to reach a multi-year low of 5,108 tons in May, 2022, down 41% from the same period of last year, and down 36% from April 2022. In the first five months of 2022, the import volumes totaled 47,755 tons, a fall of 46.89% from a year ago.

The continual decline of ACN imports is mainly attributed to the increasing capacity. In the first quarter of 2021, there was no new capacity, while in the second half year, Zhejiang Petrochemical started up its 260kta ACN line in mid-Aug, KoRuhr started up its 130kta line in end Oct, and Lihuayi started up its 260kta line in Dec. Moreover, in the second quarter of 2022, Tianchen Qixiang’s 130kta line was put into operation around late Mar. Therefore, based on the obvious rise of new capacities since the second half year of 2021, Chinese ACN supply has risen apparently. Despite of turnaround plans of Shanghai Secco, Koruhr and Shandong Haili, the new capacities were obvious, and the influences of shutdowns weakened. And demand was hard to improve apparently. The imports declined continually.

In the second half of the year, the new capacities are expected to increase further. Seizing the market shares by lower prices may continue to see. Liaoning Bora’s 600kta ABS unit has been in trial operation, so its 260kta ACN line may be put into operation. PetroChina Jilin’s 130kta ACN unit in Jieyang, with its 600kta ABS unit, is also expected to be complete. Besides, CNOOC Hainan Fine Chemicals Project may also start up in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the ACN capacity is supposed to keep rising in the second half year.

Under such background, for the imports in the second half year, the units in North China may start turnaround plans in the end period of the third quarter, with the reduction of production, import demand may increase somewhat, but is supposed to be still lower than the same period of last year. In the fourth quarter, Sinopec Anqing has the maintenance plan, but with the background of oversupply, its influences may be limited. Imports may continue to reduce in the fourth quarter.