The import of U.S. cotton linter plummets with twists and turns in the Sino-US relations

Due to various factors, cotton linter import of China surged significantly in the first two months of this year, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 60%. However, imports from the U.S. saw a drastic decrease, plunging nearly 95% year-on-year, which was quite shocking.

Since President Donald Trump took the oath of office for a second time in Jan this year, the U.S. has continued wielding the big "tariff stick" against major trading partners, threatening high tariffs at the slightest disagreement. From the perspective of monthly data, imports of U.S. cotton linter faced a "cliff-like" decline this year. According to customs data, the import volume of U.S. cotton linter was zero in Jan, and 40.2 tons in Feb, a year-on-year drop of 94.5%.

According to cumulative data, the cotton linter import volume from the U.S. plummeted by about 50-60% during 2018-2019 due to the Sino-U.S. trade war and mutual tariffs. After that, as the situation eased, import volumes surged dramatically, reaching a recent high of about 17,687 tons in 2021. However, in recent years, due to the fluctuating Sino-U.S. relations and the tariff war, the import volume of U.S. cotton linter has once again experienced significant volatility. In the first two months of 2025, only 40.23 tons were imported, a year-on-year decline of 94.8%, marking a low level.

In recent years, due to the significant volatility in the U.S. cotton linter import market, its import share has experienced considerable fluctuations. During the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war in 2018-2019, the import share of U.S. cotton linter fell from 10.1% in 2017 to 2.5% in 2019, rebounding rapidly afterwards. This year, influenced by trade frictions and changes in demand, the import volume has rapidly shrunk again, with a significant drop in its share, and the import volume in Jan-Feb was just over 40 tons, reducing its share to about 0.2%.

However, it is worth noting that this year, while the import volume of U.S. cotton linter has contracted, imports from Turkey and Brazil have skyrocketed. In Jan-Feb, Turkey's import volume reached 5,347.3 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1,682.6%, taking up about 26.5% of the total.

In summary, the U.S. cotton linter is one of the major sources of imports for China, with a normal annual share generally fluctuating around 10% and peaking at about 35kt, accounting for nearly 24%. However, due to the twists and turns in Sino-U.S. relations, the import volume and share have greatly fluctuated. In the first two months of this year, the total import volume from around the world has reached 20,169 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 57%, with only about 40 tons coming from the U.S., down nearly 95%.

As one of the most important bilateral relations in the world, Sino-U.S. relations involve nearly a quarter of the world's population and more than a third of the global economy. Whether the two countries cooperate or confront each other is crucial to global economic development and the future of humanity. Trump has used tariffs as a negotiating weapon, sparking waves of tariff storms in 2025, and this war without smoke seems far from over.