Impact of U.S. tariffs on China's PET bottle chip exports

Recently, the topic of U.S. tariffs on China has been quite hot, with many industry clients inquiring about the impact on PET bottle chip exports.

As of now, the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese polyester products are mainly based on Section 301 and trade protection tariffs targeting various polyester products.

1.Section 301 Tariffs

Background: The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), based on the Section 301 investigation, determined that China engaged in unfair practices related to intellectual property and technology transfer. Since 2018, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods.Products Involved: Polyester staple fiber, polyester filament, polyester chips, and other polyester products are all included in the tariff list.

Tariff Rate: Most polyester products have been subjected to an additional 25% tariff.

2. Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Duties

Currently, the export of polyester products to the U.S. is largely blocked, with only a certain share of polyester industrial filament still being exported. In the fiber industry chain, the U.S. has not introduced many trade barriers for textile raw materials; only stretch-filament yarn (under tariff codes 5402.33.3000 and 5402.33.6000) was initially subject to anti-dumping duties. Most of the other measures are aimed at textiles and garments exported from China. For other polyester products, especially in non-fiber areas, U.S. anti-dumping measures are more focused on raw materials rather than downstream end products, including polyester films and PET bottle chips. After anti-dumping duties were imposed on such products, their direct trade routes to the U.S. market were essentially broken, and they could only enter the U.S. market through indirect channels.

3. Potential Additional Tariffs

Impact on PET Bottle Chip Exports

Firstly, since the U.S. imposed high anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese PET bottle chip exports in 2015, exports from China to the U.S. have been close to zero. Therefore, any additional tariffs or potential tariffs in this round are unlikely to have any significant impact on Chinese PET bottle chip exporters. However, Chinese companies have not been passive; by changing the direction of trade, the export volume of bottle chips continues to grow rapidly every year.

Secondly, we need to focus on the U.S.'s tariff stance toward neighboring countries. Over the past decade, foreign competitors have used various means to block Chinese bottle chip exports, including high tariffs imposed by local bottle chip manufacturers in countries like Japan, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, South Korea, and Malaysia. Many of these countries and regions are also major sources of U.S. bottle chip imports. From recent U.S. PET bottle chip import data, it can be seen that 4 of the top 10 sources have either initiated anti-dumping investigations or imposed additional tariffs on China, especially Mexico, which was once considered the best indirect channel for Chinese bottle chips to enter the U.S. market. In 2024, Mexico also began imposing high anti-dumping duties on China. According to data from Chinese customs, exports from China to Mexico dropped rapidly from over 130,000 tons to around 30,000 tons. Currently, Canada may still serve as a transit country, but if the Trump administration imposes tariffs on Mexico and Canada in the future, the trade route for Chinese products to enter the U.S. and European markets could become more complicated.

Changes in the proportional source of U.S. PET bottle chip imports