2024 China coal market review

China coal supply was more than sufficient in 2024. Domestic coal production growth decelerated, but the import volume hit record high, supplement to domestic supply. Consumption of thermal coal at power plants remained resilient, but growth of consumption at non-power generation sector was anemic. China domestic coal price drifted to a lower range in 2024.

China domestic coal production kept steady growth at a slower pace in 2024. The full-year output reached 4.759 billion tons, up 1.06% on year in 2024, data from National Statistics Bureau showed.

The imports kept increasing to exceed 500 million tons in 2024. The import volume amounted to 540 million tons, up 14.4% on year in 2024, data from National Statistics Bureau showed.

Note: coal price indicates the mine-mouth price of 5,500 Kcal/kg coal in Inner Mongolia, with VAT.

China coal price moved lower and in particular dropped rapidly in the first quarter of 2024. In Feb-Mar, the price softened from 700yuan/mt during slack demand season in interior production areas and coastal consumption areas. After the heating demand ended, coal price declined fast to 590yuan/mt in Inner Mongolia. In May-Aug, the price got supported by demand peak in summer, and hovered at around 630-660yuan/mt.

In Sep-Oct, the price hiked to 670yuan/mt, as stocking demand picked up prior to Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, and daily consumption of thermal coal exceeded expectation due to the high temperature in coastal regions as well as Sichuan and Chongqing.

In Nov-Dec, the temperature was relatively high nationwide in winter. Coal stocks at power plants and coastal reserve areas were high, domestic production and imports were large, but demand was slack. As a result, coal price dropped to hit low of 580yuan/mt.

In 2025, the driver to China coal market is shifting from supply shortage to demand. And coal price could be in the lack of advancing momentum, and is expected to be steady to weaker at around 580-650yuan/mt. After the rapid decline in 2024, the drop could slow down as the profit was squeezed.