2024 BDO exports spike

According to the screening data from CCFGroup, exports of BDO were near 230kt in 2024, surging 57.2% on the year. The export unit price was at $1.078/kg, down by $0.328/kg year on year. BDO imports kept falling in recent years, staying around 40kt in 2024, down by 15% on annual basis.

The performance of the export market was closely aligned with that of the domestic market, showing strong growth, but there was still a noticeable decline in prices. As the quality of domestic supply and the ability to supply improved, the growth momentum of the export market surpassed that of the domestic market. Influenced by multiple factors, the export volume of BDO significantly increased in recent years:

1. With increasing BDO units being put into production in China, domestic supply surged. Facing intense internal competition, companies were keen to expand export markets.

2. As the quality of domestic BDO stabilizes and improves, overseas markets are increasingly recognizing and trusting domestic BDO products.

3. The increase in overseas demand was driven by the recovery of overseas demand and the expansion of demand sector outside China.

4. There has been little expansion of supply overseas in recent years. Additionally, around 2020, some overseas capacities exited the market, and in the past two years, several overseas BDO facilities reduced production due to weaker competitiveness, resulting in a decrease in effective supply overseas.

From the perspective of BDO demand distribution, the proportion of export demand relative to supply was gradually increasing, especially in the past two years, with nearly 10% of BDO supply being exported in 2024.

In terms of year-on-year changes in export destinations, the quantity exported to Vietnam further increased in 2024, with a significant year-on-year growth of 109%, accounting for 45% of the total export. As demand in the Vietnamese market rose, the quantity of BDO purchased from China also increased significantly year-on-year.

In other major export markets, such as South Korea and Malaysia, the quantities also doubled year-on-year, with a noticeable increase in their share of exports. Conversely, in the Italian and Indian markets, export quantities decreased by 30-40% year-on-year due to demand fluctuations, leading to a significant decline in their export shares.

From the perspective of export origins, the quantities from Jiangsu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia all saw significant year-on-year growth. Jiangsu's export volume increased by 321%, while Ningxia saw a growth of 111%, with their export shares also rising substantially. Inner Mongolia's export volume experienced an astonishing year-on-year increase of 656%. Over the past two years, as new facilities in Inner Mongolia came online, the supply surged, leading to a noticeable boost in exports, making it a major export origin. In Henan and Shanghai, export volumes also grew by over 35% year-on-year, but the increase was less than that of the aforementioned three provinces, resulting in a slight decline in their export shares. Conversely, Xinjiang's export volume decreased year-on-year, with its share dropping to 8%, primarily due to overseas policy impacts, as some international buyers have switched to sourcing from other regions, leading to reduced export volumes.

In 2024, the export growth momentum for BDO remained strong, with significant increases in export volumes from major domestic BDO producing areas. In 2025, there are still few expansion projects for BDO in overseas markets. Due to competitive disadvantages in geographical location and policy, it is expected that China's exports may continue to grow, while imported sources will face even more intense pressure from domestic supply.