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China’s PP capacity expansion forecast for 2025

2025-02-12 09:24:43 CCFGroup

In 2024, China PP granule production capacity increased by 4.85 million tons/year to 43.785 million tons/year, with an increase rate of 12.46%. This was also the year with the largest increase in new production capacity in history.

The new PP plants were mainly concentrated commenced in the second and fourth quarters, with 2.1 million tons/year in each quarter. However, plants such as Inner Mongolia Baofeng #1, Yulong Petrochemical #1, #3 and #5 were commenced intensively in late December. Their impact on the actual supply change in 2024 was limited, and their effects will be more evident in 2025.


Sources of propylene	Region	Company	Capacity(KTA)	Startup
Oil-based	South China	PetroChina Guangdong PC II	200	Jan
PDH	South China	Zhongjing PC(capacity expansion)	150	Feb
PDH	South China	Zhongjiang PC(capacity expansion)	150	Feb
Out-sourced propylene	South China	Huizhou Lituo New Material	150	Mar
PDH	South China	Quanzhou Grand Pacific Chemical	450	May
Oil-based	East China	Anhui Tianda	150	May
PDH	North China	Qingdao Jineng Technology II	900	May
PDH	South China	Zhongjing PC II #2	600	Jun
Oil-based	North China	Sinopec/Ineos Tianjin	350	Oct
Oil-based	North China	Jincheng Petrochemical #1	150	Nov
Oil-based	Northwest China	Inner Mongolia Baofeng #1	500	Dec
Oil-based	North China	Yulong Petrochemical #1, #3, #5	1100	Dec
Total			4850

In terms of sources of propylene, the new production capacity mainly comes from PDH and oil-based processes, with 2.25 million tons per year and 1.95 million tons per year respectively, accounting for approximately 46.39% and 40.21%. As a result, the total production capacity of PDH has surpassed that of coal-based chemicals (including MTO and MTP), ranking second.

Regarding the distribution of new production capacity by region, the commissioning of new PP plants is mainly concentrated in North China (2.5 million tons per year) and South China (1.7 million tons per year). Consequently, the total production capacity of South China has exceeded that of East China, rising to the second-largest in China, and East China's ranking has dropped accordingly.

Looking ahead to 2025, there are still plans to put into production over 8 million tons per year of domestic PP granule production capacity. However, based on past experience, the actual production progress may fall far short of expectations.

Sources of propylene	Region	Company	Capacity(KTA)
Oil-based	North China	Yulong Petrochemical	800
PDH	North China	Lihuayi Weiyuan Chemical	200
Out-sourced propylene	South China	Huizhou Lituo New Material #2	150
Oil-based	North China	Jincheng Petrochemical #2	150
Oil-based	South China	ExxonMobil Huizhou I	950
Oil-based	East China	ZRCC II	500
Oil-based	East China	CNOOC Ningbo Daxie petrochemical II	900
Coal-based	Northwest China	Inner Mongolia Baofeng #2 & #3	1000
PDH	South China	Oriental Energy (Maoming) I #2 & #3	800
PDH	East China	Zhejiang Yuanjin New Material I	600
Oil-based	North China	Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical Branch	250
Coal-based	Northwest China	Gansu Huating	200
PDH	East China	Kaijin Lantian Energy	900
MTO	Northeast China	Jingang petrochemical I	350
PDH	South China	Fujian Yongrong New Material I	900
Total			8650

In terms of sources of regions, East China and South China will be the main areas for capacity expansion in 2025, with an expected increase of 31.87% and 28.60% respectively.

In terms of sources of propylene, oil-based and PDH will still be the main forces for new production capacity, accounting for 41.04% and 39.31% respectively.

Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of domestic PP in 2025 may continue to intensify. Some enterprises with small scales, single product structures, and high costs may face the risk of elimination in the near future. Due to objective factors, there is great uncertainty in the commissioning of plants.

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