January-February polyester polymerization rate assessment update

In mid-January, as the production curtailment continues in polyester market, the actual progress has become clearer. By January 16, the polyester polymerization rate has dropped to 83.6%.

Compared to the previous period, there have been some adjustments in the maintenance plans or actual operations this time:

1. Increased maintenance for PET bottle chip companies: In addition to the plants that underwent maintenance in December, two major PET bottle chip manufacturers also added plans for production reduction or maintenance. These adjustments are significant in scale and may last for a considerable time, leading to a reduction in operating rate during this year's Spring Festival to below 80%, which is lower than the same period of last year. The newly added maintenance for PET bottle chip facilities may help digest social inventory gradually.

2. The operating rate of PSF plants is expected to be high: Although the planned reduction and maintenance for PSF amount to over 2 million tons, many have not yet started and some facilities are expected to reduce production scale or duration. As a result, the actual operating rate expectations are likely to be further adjusted upward, with the average run rate in January and February expected to be higher than the same period of last year.

Regarding PFY, current operations do not show significant deviations. Some facilities have already begun planned shutdowns for maintenance, while others are experiencing slight timing discrepancies. Some facilities have also restarted operations, and further changes are possible, so the actual execution pace will be monitored continuously.

Based on this, the latest run rate simulation may look as follows:

According to the current assessment, the expected low point for polyester polymerization rate in January and February is around 80%, likely occurring in late-January. Following this, there will be a gradual resumption of facilities, with recovery becoming more evident around mid-February, although some facilities are also scheduled for maintenance afterward. Compared to the same period of last year, there are slight differences due to the timing of the Spring Festival, but the overall operating rate is gradually approaching. Based on current calculations, the polyester polymerization rate in January is expected to be around 84% or slightly higher, while the average run rate in February may be around 87%. Adjustments will continue dynamically during the actual execution process.

It is worth noting that, as of now, the restarting times for the facilities that have undergone or are scheduled for maintenance and production reduction still face uncertainty.

According to the preliminary calculations, the facilities with clearly defined restarting times account for less than half of the total capacity, while many other facilities have uncertain restarting times. This assessment is based on an approximate maintenance duration of around 20 days. If the resumption times of these facilities are advanced or delayed, the run rate will face corresponding adjustments.