China methanol imports reduce due to gas restrictions in Iran – ChinaTexnet.com
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China methanol imports reduce due to gas restrictions in Iran

2025-02-08 09:49:14 CCFGroup

It is reported that Iran's Zagros restarted one 1.65 mln mt/yr unit recently, but the other unit with same capacity remained shut. And Bushehr has shut its 1.65 mln mt/yr methanol unit for maintenance lasting 2 weeks.

The shortage of natural gas to industrial sector in Iran continues, but why could Zagros restart its plant? Some local source says the restart of Zagros' plant is temporary and its will probably shut again. The natural gas supply is possibly sold to Zagros from Bushehr after the shutdown of its plant. Bushehr will restart its methanol plant after completing scheduled maintenance. And then, Zagros' plant will shut again.

The source also says the natural gas supply in Iran will probably not recover until Mar.

In the year earlier, some methanol plants in Iran, including Khark Petrochemical, Fanavaran Petrochemical and Bushehr were not affected by gas restrictions in winter, and the situation could be the same this year. According to the restart schedule, Zagros is expected to restart one 1.65 mln mt/yr unit in late Jan with operating rate of 50%, and it may not lift operating rate until Mar. Plants of Kaveh and Aryan are expected to restart in end-Feb, and plants of Kimia, Sabalan and Marjan are anticipated to restart in mid-Mar. Therefore, methanol plant operation in Iran may not fully recover until end of March.

The situation of natural gas shortage this year is more severe than in the year earlier, and therefore, it is expected that recovery of methanol plants would be later than in the year earlier. Iran's methanol production is estimated at 150-200kt a month during gas restriction period, and it could stay low till Apr.

Therefore, China methanol imports are estimated to reduce to 850-900kt in Jan, further decrease to about 550kt in Feb and 600kt in Mar.

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