Is there 'export rush' in December textile and apparel exports?

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on January 13, 2024, textile and apparel exports reached $28.07 billion in December 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.4% and a month-on-month rise of 11.5%. Among these, textile exports amounted to $13.13 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.4% and a month-on-month growth of 8%. Apparel exports totaled $14.93 billion, up 6.6% on annual basis and 14.7% month-on-month respectively.

Is the double-digit year-on-year and month-on-month growth in textile and apparel exports in December related to "export rush"? The answer is yes.

As early as November 5, 2024, following Trump's election victory, concerns about an escalation in the China-U.S. trade war emerged in the market. On November 26, Trump announced on his personal social media platform (Truth Social) that he would sign executive orders upon taking office on January 20 that would impose an additional 10% tariff on all imported goods from China and a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada.

Reviewing the experiences from the four rounds of tariff lists in 2018-2019, there tends to be a rush to export once the threat of tariffs becomes clear and the specific tariff plans are announced. For instance, on March 22, 2018, Trump signed a presidential memorandum announcing significant tariffs on goods imported from China, which led to a staggering 51.69% month-on-month increase in China's textile and apparel exports in April.

In December, CCFGroup also surveyed some textile companies exporting to the U.S., and the feedback indicated that overseas downstream customers required Chinese suppliers to ship all goods destined for the U.S. before New Year's Day and ensure they arrived at ports before Trump took office. Consequently, some textile and apparel exporters worked overtime to meet these demands.

Data from CCFGroup monitoring supported this observation. Despite the gradual winding down of domestic sales, the downstream order index in December rebounded compared to November, indicating an improvement in foreign trade orders. Moreover, the operating rate of downstream plants in December was generally better than market expectations, and the combination of improved orders and low-priced raw materials prompted downstream buyers to increase their procurement of upstream raw materials, while also generally postponing the Spring Festival holiday schedule.

However, feedback from downstream clients currently indicated that the performance of foreign trade order acquisition after the Lunar New Year is modest. Some overseas downstream customers may want to wait for clarity on tariff policies after Trump takes office before making decisions.