Asian PX plant operations in 2024

With the end of the second round of capacity expansion cycle, China saw no new PX capacity in 2024. Driven by the recovery of MX to PX and TDP economics, almost all existing domestic PX units in China were operating, with annual operating rate and production hitting record highs.

In 2024, the annual average operating rate of China PX plants reached about 82%, up 6 percentage points from the year earlier. The rise in operating rate was mainly seen in Jan-Mar and Jun-Sep, up 11 percentage points and 7 percentage points respectively from the same period of last year.

In Jan-Mar 2024, supported by less maintenance and good PX economics based on MX, domestic PX operating rate hit a record high of 85% in the first quarter. In Jun-Sep, gasoline blending demand did not live up to expectation, and MX was diverted back to PX production in China, leading to an obvious increase in PX operating rate during the demand peak for gasoline. In addition, benzene price was resilient in the first three quarters of 2024, and thus TDP units were incentivized by good profits and MX production hence increased, also driving up PX production.

Therefore, the operating rate of China domestic PX units increased significantly in 2024, largely contributed by the operation of MX-based units, which exceeded the expectation.

In the past two years, even starting from the second round of capacity expansion cycle that began in 2019, the integration and scale of domestic PX units have been greatly improved, and the comprehensive production cost of large units using crude oil as raw material was significantly lower than those relying on purchasing MX or naphtha. Under this circumstance, the survival of small-sized units based on MX was under challenge. As a result, the small units of Sinopec Luoyang, Sinopec Shanghai and CNPC Urumqi suspended and exited. However, in 2024, the situation changed. TDP margin improved significantly, and PX economics based on MX recovered. And the buying of toluene and MX could even compensate the loss in PX based on naphtha. Therefore, the operating rates of small units hiked in 2024.

In 2024, the planned maintenance was concentrated in the second and fourth quarters. In the second quarter, several China domestic and Japanese and Korean plants underwent maintenance, while in the fourth quarter, planned maintenance mainly occurred in China.

The capacity of planned maintenance in Asia reached 3.23 million mt/yr throughout 2024, accounting for 67% of total capacity loss, while unplanned shutdowns took up one third of capacity loss and mainly happened outside China.

In China, ZPC's PX lines encountered troubles frequently, but the shutdown was short, and the production loss was limited. Outside China, GS' some units underwent maintenance for long period in the first half year, Hengyi Brunei cut operating rate after hit by fire in mid-2024, Indonesia's TPPI postponed the restart till end-2024, Rabigh's plant was once shut due to troubles, and Oman Aromatics and Kuwait Aromatics shut their plants unexpectedly in the fourth quarter. S-Oil's PX plant was running at reduced operating rate after hit by fire, and it turned to selling MX.

On overall basis, PX plant operating rate ticked up, as large plants maintained operating rates and small units based on MX ramped up production. And therefore, China PX supply reached a peak.

In 2025, Yulong Petrochemical may start its new 3 million mt/yr PX plant, but the time is undecided depending on the approval. Saudi Arabia's Jazan 850kt/yr PX plant has been delayed but its reformer began running temporarily in Sep 2024. SASA's new PTA plant in Turkey is expected to start, and it may become an opportunity for Jazan's PX plant.