Will new changes occur in cotton linter imports from U.S after Trump's election victory?

In the early morning of November 6, local time, the U.S. Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election. Sino-US relations are the most important bilateral relations in the world today. What is the future situation? What is the situation of China's cotton linter import from the United States?

Affected by Sino-US relations and restricted by end-user demand, China's cotton linter imports from the United States have fluctuated greatly in recent years. In terms of a single month, since Jun 2022, cotton linter import from U.S. has shrunk significantly. From Oct 2022, the import volume has been zero for four consecutive months. In 2023, the import volume has been zero or single digit in most months, but has picked up sharply this year. In Aug of 2024, the import volume was about 544 tons. In Sep, due to the arrival of new cotton linter in China, the import volume was zero again.

From the perspective of cumulative volume in recent years, the import of cotton linter from U.S. decreased in 2018/2019 due to Sino-US trade frictions and tariffs imposed by each other. The import volume in 2018 was 5,152.1 tons, falling by 49.7% y-o-y, which was 2,195.1 tons in 2019, down 57.4% y-o-y. After that, as the tariff incident gradually eased, the import form U.S. increased significantly in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 423.2%. The import volume in 2021 was high at 17.7kt, with a year-on-year increase of 54%. From Jan to Sep this year, the import volume was 2,816.4 tons, a year-on-year increase of 212.5%.

Due to product quality and cost-effectiveness, U.S. cotton linters are favored by China's refined cotton and nitrocellulose companies. However, affected by many factors, the import volume has fluctuated greatly, and the proportion was also volatile. The percentage of U.S. cotton linter dropped from 10.1% in 2017 to 2.5% in 2019 due to the Sino-US trade frictions in 2018-2019, but gradually recovered later. In 2020, the import volume was in 11,484.7 tons, accounting for 15.7%. From Jan to Sep this year, the import volume was 2,816.4 tons, accounting for 3.6%.

To sum up, the dust of the 2024 U.S. election has settled. As Sino-US relations are the most important bilateral relations in the world today, Trump's election to a second term as US president means it marks a new starting point for Sino-US relations. Trump set off Sino-US trade frictions in 2018, and The United States and China imposed tariffs on each other's goods, causing a sharp decline in the import volume of cotton linter from U.S. in 2018-2019. During the election campaign, remarks such as the imposition of a 60% tariff once again attracted great attention from the market. The direction of Sino-US relations in the next four years may still be uncertain, and China's cotton linter imports from U.S. may also face new twists and turns in the future.