China's cotton linter import market experiences a “tale of two extremes” in 2024

China's cotton linter import market has witnessed a scenario of "tale of two extremes" this year. Monthly import volume has shown significant divergence, and import regions have seen a major reversal. In the first half of the year, cotton linter imports from India surged, but have been shedding since the second half. Meanwhile, Turkish linter imports were lukewarm in the first half but have skyrocketed in the second half, showing a "standout" trend.

The import market has performed reasonably well this year, albeit with substantial divergence. In Apr, Jul, and Aug, the monthly import volume exceeded 10kt. However, in Sep the volume nearly halved month-on-month to about 5,084.26 tons, a decline of 49.2% month-on-month and 10.7% year-on-year. From Jan to Sep, the cumulative import volume reached about 78,915.2 tons, a year-on-year increase of 43.1%, already surpassing the total import volume for the entire year of 2023.

In terms of origins, cotton linter imports of China have been highly concentrated this year, mainly from three countries and regions such as India, Turkey, and Brazil. In Sep, these three accounted for as much as 88.3% of the total imports. From Jan to Sep, their combined share was 86.3%, although there was significant divergence between the first and second half of the year.

In the first half of the year, India's cotton linter imports stood out, with the volume surging to 29,501.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 139.5%, accounting for 57.4%. During the same period, India's monthly imports significantly led the market, with the share ranging within 50-70%. However, with the decline in Chinese cotton linter prices in the second half of the year, India's imports underwent a drastic change, falling sharply from Jul to Sep, with a total of 2,517.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 72.1%, accounting for only 9.2%. The monthly import share plummeted from 13% in Jul to around 1% in Sep, which was quite unexpected.

On the other hand, Turkish linter, which was lukewarm in the first half, skyrocketed in the second half. From Jan to Jun, Turkish imports totaled about 6,231.8 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%, occupying 12.1%. From Jul to Sep, the import volume surged, with monthly shares of 42.9%, 53.2%, and 45% respectively. The cumulative import volume from Jul to Sep reached about 12,941 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.9%, taking up 47.1%, showing a "dominant" trend.

In summary, China's cotton linter import market has seen significant fluctuations this year. The import volume in Apr, Jul, and Aug exceeded 10kt, but staying at a yearly low in Sep, nearly halving month-on-month. In the first half of the year, India's cotton linter imports surged, accounting for 57.4%, but shrinking sharply to 9.2% from Jul to Sep. Turkish linter imports, which were lukewarm in the first half, accounting for 12.1%, surged in the second half to 47.1%. With new Chinese cotton linter gradually arriving at the market, there are still uncertainties regarding the volume and origins of imported linters.