PET bottle chip export order intake creates new high in Sep

According to CCFGroup's latest statistics, in September 2024, domestic PET bottle chip factories received export orders near 710,000 tons, an increase of over 26% year-on-year and up 50% compared to August. This marks the highest monthly export order intake for PET bottle chip since the record high of 560,000 tons set in October last year.

The sharp rebound in the PET bottle chip exports in September is attributed to several factors: first, the export prices for PET bottle chip have dropped to their lowest levels of the year, nearly reaching the pandemic-low since the introduction of PET bottle chip futures, which has accelerated market price discovery. Some factories reportedly received daily export orders exceeding 50,000 tons. Secondly, there has been a persistent demand for procurement, especially as both domestic and international customers have historically tended to stock up in advance before the National Day holiday. Third, there is a stocking demand from major overseas end manufacturers before the Christmas and the Lunar New Year holidays. Meanwhile, following the announcement of a series of favorable policies by the Chinese government, both domestic and international markets have maintained optimistic expectations for the recovery of the domestic economy. However, most of the orders from major end manufacturers are scheduled for delivery after the New Year. Additionally, while there are expectations of new capacity coming online by the year's end, delays in the commissioning of new units and the tendency of bottle chip factories to secure more orders early, especially in terms of futures contract specifications, are likely to limit the impact of new capacity on market supply. The export proportion of PET bottle chip s is expected to maintain around 40% before the Spring Festival.

Furthermore, from the domestic sales market perspective, apart from a few large manufacturers, most mainstream end-user factories have already begun to procure orders for 2025, with a significant portion of the first and second quarters already purchased, while adopting a wait-and-see stance for the short term. Overall, the orders for PET bottle chip from both domestic and export markets currently appear to be relatively sufficient. Although traders had a strong bearish sentiment earlier, it has significantly decreased following the release of favorable policies. The main concern now is whether market confidence can gradually restore.

Comprehensively analyzing the export order intake from July to September, the average for the three months is around 520,000-530,000 tons. Even though some of these orders are new for 2025, it can be confirmed that the shipment volume of domestic PET bottle chip before the Spring Festival will not be low. It is estimated that from October to the Spring Festival, the export volume can average at 450,000 to 500,000 tons or more, with certain months potentially exceeding 500,000 tons or reaching 600,000 tons, although actual shipments will ultimately depend on shipping schedules. Looking ahead, we believe that with the current favorable policies accumulating, the foundation of the domestic and export RMB market has essentially been established, but market confidence has not fully recovered, raising concerns about potential oversupply in the future. Market participants should remain cautious. Attention should be focused on concentrated shipments at the end of the year and changes in PET bottle chip factories, especially the restart of some long-idled facilities.