Direct-spun PSF: the expectation for peak season may weaken

Since mid-to-late August, there have been frequent inquiries from downstream sectors asking whether the direct-spun PSF market has bottomed out and if it is time to replenish moderately.

The peak season is approaching gradually, but this year, despite several rounds of anticipation, the onset of the peak season has been very slow.

1. Weak pressure from raw materials

Since mid-August, crude oil, PX and PTA have continued to drop significantly, leading to increased caution from downstream industries. Although oil prices have rebounded later, PX and PTA still remain at low levels and are consolidating, with accumulation expectations still present. This makes cost-driven factors challenging.

2. Limited improvement in downstream demand

Since mid-August, there have been reports of autumn and winter end-user orders gradually coming in, but feedback from yarn factories is not very noticeable. Currently, the inventory of polyester yarn remains at a high level for the year, though accumulation has slowed. Compared to inventory trends from last year and the year before, yarn factories began to reduce the inventory in July-August, but this year, it has been relatively delayed.

Although the market is waiting for stabilization and rebound, some yarn factories have started to build up inventory at lower levels since mid-August, with raw material inventory now exceeding half a month.

On Monday, polyester feedstock futures rebounded significantly, leading to increased sales of polyester filament yarn and polyester staple fiber. The future driving force of raw materials still needs further observation, and a better end-user market is needed to help with inventory digestion. Currently, in the PSF and yarn industry chain, product inventories are at high levels, and factories are adjusting their "peak season" expectations downwards, prioritizing inventory control.