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MEG market in Jun 22-25

2023-07-05 08:04:48 CCFGroup

Prices of most chemicals in Asian decreased recently dragged down by falling oil prices. In polyester industrial chain, naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG all moved down. However, U.S. ethane prices increased apparently to the highest level since March 2023. U.S. MEG prices were recently stable with the rally of ethane prices.

Product	2023/6/21	2023/6/22	2023/6/23	Change	Unit
WTI futures	72.53	69.51	69.16	-3.37	$/bbl
Naphtha CFR Japan	531.375	529.375	500.5	-30.875	$/mt
Ethylene CFR NEA	715	715	715	0	$/mt
Ethane U.S.	21.75	22.25	22.75	1	cent/gal
MEG China	3932	/	3900	-32	Yuan/mt
MEG CIF NWE	470	470	460	-10	Euro/mt
MEG FD USGC	18	18	18	0	Cent/lb

On Jun 25, operating rate of all MEG plants in Chinese Mainland was at 57.87%, up 0.84% from Jun 15, and of coal-based MEG plants in Chinese Mainland at 65.72%, up 4.93%. Overall MEG plant operating rate recovered with improving economics, particularly coal-based MEG. Meanwhile, some units also restarted as planned.

Plant news
Company	Location	Capacity,kta	Turnaround (plans)
FREP	Fujian	400	70%+
Zhongke	Guangdong	500	60-70%
Far Eastern Union	Jiangsu	500	50%+
Hengli	Liaoning	900*2	90%+
ZPC Phase 1	Zhejiang	750	shut on May 10, 40 days; restart delayed to end-Jun
ZPC Phase 2	Zhejiang	800+800	#2-1 more than 100%; #2-2 shut around May 20-21; restart delayed to end-Jun
Satellite PC	Jiangsu	1800	one line shut on May 17
HNEC Yongcheng #2	Henan	200	has restarted, now at 90%
Huayi	Guangxi	200	shut on Apr 13; restart delayed
Hubei Sanning	Hubei	600	ramping up operating rate
Tianye III	Xinjiang	600	ramping up operating rate
LG Daesan	South Korea	125	t/a May 27, 1 month
GC Glycol	Thailand	400	shut in early Feb, to restart in June
MEGlobal Prentiss 1	Canada	350	t/a end-May, 3 weeks
MEGlobal	U.S.	750	shut recently, to resume in early Jul

Operating rate of coal-based MEG units in China has recovered to about 66% with the restarts of HNEC Yongcheng #2 and Tianye III and further increase is expected. Eyes could rest on the restarts of ZPC and Sinopec Hainan. Looking ahead, China domestic supply will gradually increase. Total MEG inventory is expected to increase in Jul. However, polyester plant operating rate remains high, which could still lend supports to the market. Eyes could rest on whether the high polyester plant operating rate could sustain and polyester sales ratio.

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