Cotton: How is the weather in Xinjiang?

Due to the low temperature, rainy and snowy weather in Xinjiang, there is strong expectation on the market about lower Xinjiang cotton production in 2023/24 season. ZCE cotton futures market is firm, and price spread between Chinese and international cotton narrows, giving space to imported cotton gradually. Then how is the weather condition in Xinjiang?

In terms of the most important influencing factor on cotton production, the temperature was obviously low in early and mid-Apr, and in late Apr, temperature declined further. The temperature was slow to warm up this year. Currently, it is still the early planting period, and growers can take measures to re-plant the crops.

In terms of the average rainfall, obvious rainfall was seen in North Xinjiang in mid-Apr.

For the average sunshine hours, it was also at a low level in recent years.

For the new cotton crop development by mid-Apr, the crop development was earlier this year in South Xinjiang, while sowing was slow in North Xinjiang due to low temperature compared with previous years.

In general, temperature in North Xinjiang was obviously low in Apr. Nevertheless, the temperature was also low in late Apr, 2021, but later, the temperature warmed up gradually. Currently, it is still early period for new cotton crop planting, and growers can re-plant. Therefore, the influences of low temperature on cotton production remain unclear. Nevertheless, looking from the previous Xinjiang cotton production, inspection volumes of Xinjiang cotton in 2021/22 were 5.307 million tons, down 8% from 5.768 million tons in 2020/21, but higher than 5.13 million tons in 2019/20 and 5.14 million tons in 2018/19. According to the Cotton Association’s investigation over the growers in Mar, the planting areas of cotton in 2023 may decline by 7.4% nationwide and 4.3% in Xinjiang. Market players expect the Chinese cotton production may drop by 10% or above mostly, partly at 15-20%.