How is the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on rayon export market?

The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and the European Union said in a joint statement on Saturday that "selected Russian banks" will be removed from the SWIFT messaging system, which stands for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, after Russia attacked Ukraine on Feb 24. Will rayon export market be affected accordingly?

First of all, let us look at VSF. In the past three years, VSF is mainly exported to Turkey, Pakistan, Indonesia, US and Vietnam with the market share between 60-70%. The export to Russia is about 9-12kt, taking up 3% of total exports. The export to Russia is mainly originated from Fujian province with local capacity of 300kt/yr, just 3% of the total number, so there is no big impact. The export to Ukraine is just around hundreds of tons in 2021, which can be almost ignored.

As for rayon yarn, the export volume to Ukraine and Russia is also small as below.

In conclusion, the Ukraine-Russia conflict and Blocking Russia from SWIFT may exert greater impact on the export from Fujian province to Russia, but the export volume is not high in general. Even if Russia is excluded from the SWIFT interbank communication system, there are other channels available for payment, so the impact on rayon market is limited.