How will acrylic fiber market adjust in Dec?

Since Nov, some spinning mills reflect that the orders are less compared with Oct. Though inventory has reduced to a low level, spinners only purchase feedstock as scheduled, and have no strong willingness to replenish more feedstock. On the one hand, prices have not risen further in early Nov, and some spinners expect prices to stop rising and stabilize, and with less orders, they are not active to purchase feedstock. On the other hand, with the impending traditional replenishment cycle before the Chinese Lunar New Year, spinners anticipate that the feedstock prices may adjust lower, and wait to see the market direction.

However, for now, the acrylic fiber prices may not have the conditions to go down.

For feedstock, ACN prices move up first and then decline since Nov, but producers have raised the prices, and the settlement prices in Nov will be higher than that in Oct. It is predicted that the ACN settlement price for Nov may be 15,200-15,400yuan/mt, higher about 400-600yuan/mt from Oct. In the meantime, under the background of tight energy, acrylic fiber plant operating rate is restrained, and the costs will be higher than that in Oct. Under this condition, acrylic fiber prices get supported.

For acrylic fiber plants, previously, with considerable demand, inventory remains low. Currently, plants basically have no inventory pressure, and after the orders go thinner, plants also adjust lower the operating rate. There is no room to cut prices to promote sales for digesting the inventory. Besides, due to unfavorable profits, plants also show ordinary enthusiasm to produce in short.

For demand, according to some spinning mills, there are some foreign orders under negotiation currently, but the orders are limited due to prices. But the inquiries are expected to increase in Dec. But based on high acrylic fiber prices, the replenishment has not started.

In short, acrylic fiber prices are hard to decline. In Dec, with the gradual start-up and operation of new capacities and the restart of the units, ACN market sentiment may be bearish. But the unexpected logistics issues may lead to the different trend of the market. In addition, the replenishment time of spinning mills may be around mid-Dec to mid-Jan, and demand may improve in Dec, supportive to acrylic fiber sales. Therefore, in general, if ACN prices move lower, acrylic fiber prices may be stable, while if ACN prices are flat or rise, acrylic fiber prices may have the momentum to go up.