Jun’21 cotton yarn imports may move up 8.9 % m o m to 172kt

1. Imported cotton yarn arrivals to China assessment

Cotton yarn imports of China in May reached 15kt, up 64.6 % on the year and down 26.9% on the month. It amounted to 918kt cumulatively in Jan Apr up 34.4 year on year. The imports in Jun is initially assessed at 172 kt, up 22.4 % on the year and 8.9 % on the month.

According to foreign shipment data in May, cotton yarn imports of China from Vietnam in Jun increased, and those from Pakistan dipped. Reported by Chinese traders, Jun arrivals will increase somewhat. Uzbekistani cotton yarn accounted for more and more proportion in China market, so it also becomes more important. Uzbekistani cotton yarn export value in May was higher on the month, but that to China slightly dropped. It is initially estimated that cotton yarn imports of China in Jun from Vietnam is at 76kt; from Pakistan 16.5kt, from India 30kt, from Uzbekistan

25kt and from other regions is small.

2. Imported yarn stocks and supply and demand outlook in Jul

The arrivals of imported cotton yarn in May declined largely compared with that in Apr, while those in Jun are expected to increase. However, due to slack season, the sales were relatively slow. Only those in short supply were s old smoothly with price rising. Low count cotton yarn saw adequate supply and the prices mainly kept stable. Overall stocks of imported cotton yarn in Jun increased and by end Jun, it was over 120kt. The arrivals of Jun were mostly ordered in late Apr and early to mid-May, whose costs were lower. Among current stocks, low count open-end cotton yarn, ring-spun one and siro-spun one were relatively more while C32S, OEC21S and C20S were tight and some traders offered high and became reluctant sellers.

The inventory of weavers increased amid slack season with reduced new orders and gradually finished previous orders, but it was not high, so the operating rate changed little. Only that in North China inched down during the busy farming and in South China changed a little due to Dragon Boat Festival and eased restriction of power in Guangdong. By end Jun the operating rate in other markets did not change much.

In terms of later market, Indian cotton yarn and Uzbekistani cotton yarn have the largest uncertainty in China s cotton yarn imports, and Vietnamese cotton yarn and Pakistani one are relatively stable. During Jun, spot imported cotton yarn price kept lower than forward one for a long time. In the first half month, the ordering volume was small but in the second half month, it increased gradually as well as the price inquiries. The ordering volume of forward Indian cotton yarn experienced a wave of rise when the price moved downward. Vietnamese cotton yarn, Pakistani cotton yarn and Uzbekistani one were orders successively in Jun, adding the procurement of downstream weavers and return of those invested outside China, so Jul arrivals are expected to stay at medium level.