USDA: May cotton supply and demand estimation

U.S. cotton production in 2021/22 is projected to rise 2.4 million bales, but total supply is projected at its lowest in 5 years, and both exports and ending stocks are forecast lower than in 2020/21. Production is anticipated at 17.0 million bales, with 12.0 million planted acres as indicated in Prospective Plantings, abandonment projected above the average of the past 5 years, and average yields. Exports are expected to fall 1.6 million bales, to 14.7 million. Domestic mill use is projected to rise 200,000 bales, to 2.5 million, and ending stocks are 200,000 bales lower to 3.1 million. The upland cotton farm price is 75 cents per pound, 10 percent higher than in 2020/21. 

For 2020/21, U.S. cotton production is reduced slightly from last month. The export forecast is increased 500,000 bales to 16.25 million as the expected U.S. share of world trade rises, and ending stocks are estimated 600,000 bales lower than in April, at 3.3 million. 

The world 2021/22 cotton projections show global supply about unchanged from a year earlier—as rising production offsets lower beginning stocks—and falling ending stocks, as consumption rises to its highest in 4 years. Production is projected at 119.4 million bales, 6.3 million higher than in 2020/21. Higher production is expected in Brazil, Australia, Mali, Pakistan, India, and Turkey; a 2.0-million-bale decline is projected for China’s crop. Global consumption is forecast to rise 3.5 percent to 121.5 million bales as global income growth remains strong. Global ending stocks are expected to shrink by 2.2 million bales, to 91.0 million, equivalent to 75 percent of use. 

For 2020/21, global production saw little net change from April, but beginning stocks and consumption are projected lower, and estimated global ending stocks are 300,000 bales lower. Indian 2019/20 and 2020/21 production is reduced by a total of 1.2 million bales China’s 2020/21 crop is raised 500,000 bales, reflecting ginning and inspection data from Xinjiang. Global consumption is forecast 439,000 bales lower this month, as India’s recent textile exports and economic disruption from COVID-19 reduced expected mill use there by 800,000 bales.  

2020/21 Est.

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks.　3/ Less than 5,000 bales.　4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed.　5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.　6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.　7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade. 

unit: Million 480-Pound Bales