Bullish and bearish factors analysis for ACN market

In late Apr, China acrylonitrile offers move up due to slightly tight spot availabilities and anticipation of not low settlement prices for Apr. Therefore, market players hold looking-on mood towards the May price direction, and with the bearish and bullish news, the price direction is hard to predict.

For the bulls: 1. The settlement price for Apr is anticipated to be not low, and market prices climb up somewhat. 2 South Korean Tongsuh Petrochemical is planning to shut its 265kta No. 4 ACN plant at Ulsan on May 10 for 30 days of planned turnaround; Japan’s Asahi Kasei plans to shut its 200kta ACN unit in May-Jun at Mizushima. 3. PetroChina Jilin’s 452kta unit plans to shut in late May for maintenance, which may last till early Jul. 4. Acrylic fiber plant operating rate is cut largely in Apr, and players expect that the operating rate may recover somewhat in May.

For the bears: 1. There is still downward space for ACN on concern about its considerable profits. 2. Downstream acrylic fiber and AM sales are unfavorable, and acrylic fiber market lacks support after stepping into slack season. 3. It is heard that Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II ACN unit will start up in Jun at the earliest, which will dampen the market sentiment in May. 4. Trading time shortens somewhat in May due to the five-day long May Day holiday.

In general, viewed from the bullish factors, the maintenance of PetroChina Jilin will starts in late May, which is close to the issuance time of settlement price, and it is a planned operation, the market players have digested this news in advance. For acrylic fiber market, though operating rate is likely to rise in May, it is hard to rise to the high level in late Feb and Mar. Viewed from the bearish factors, the start-up of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s ACN unit in Jun is likely to be delayed further. Though the downward space for ACN price is large, the plant inventory pressure is not large. The inventory is likely to be under control in May by virtue of some plant maintenance and speculative replenishment, then prices are hard to fall down.

Therefore, the bullish and bearish factors are changeable, hard to market a forecast on late market. At the end of the day, the market is under the impact of the supply and demand change from the fundamental, and the changeable factors affect the market mentality. Therefore, for the price change, pay attention to the inventory change straightly.