PTA exports surge in March, can we expect more in the future?

In the first quarter of 2024, PTA exports totaled 1.027 million tons, an increase of 11.9% compared to the same period last year. In March, the export volume reached 457,200 tons, marking an 11.2% increase and setting a new record for monthly exports. However, since July of last year, PTA exports had been sluggish due to the impact of India's BIS policy. So, why did export volumes surge again in the first quarter of this year?

From the export destinations in the first quarter, the average monthly volume of PTA exports from China to India has dropped to 10,000-20,000 tons, with a cumulative volume of 51,900 tons in the first quarter, down 83% year-on-year. However, there has been a significant increase in exports to Turkey, Vietnam, Egypt, and Oman, which has essentially offset the export losses to India. Turkey has become the largest destination for PTA exports from Chinese mainland. Part of the reason is due to the Red Sea crisis in the fourth quarter of last year, which resulted in delayed shipping schedules, causing some shipments to be delayed until January for delivery.

In March, China's exports to Turkey and Vietnam saw a significant increase in volume. Turkey added a new 300,000-ton polyester plant this year, leading to increased demand. In addition, due to the Spring Festival, PTA that was collected at ports in January and February was exported in March. In February, local polyester demand in Vietnam decreased, resulting in lower import volumes. However, in March, as polyester demand increased, the need to replenish stockpiles drove a substantial increase in exports from Fujian to Vietnam.

It's expected that the volumes to Turkey and Vietnam will decline in April. It's understood that some suppliers who delayed shipments earlier have now completed deliveries. Based on current information, exports to Turkey in April are estimated to decrease. Demand in Vietnam remains relatively stable, mainly supplied by companies like Billion, Ineos, and FCFC. The decline in April is expected to be limited. However, there might be additional exports to Taiwan in April. Additionally, South Korean buyers also show more interest towards China's PTA, which might lead to increased exports in the future.